Day Trading Method Setup Evaluation - Consolidation Trading

Critical to learning how to day trade a trading method is the trader's ability to evaluate isolated trading time periods and chart segments.  This evaluation wouldn't be done by the trader deciding what they would have done after seeing the chart in hindsight BUT by knowing what they would have done real time, because their evaluation would be done in the context of the trading method AND the base trade setups and trading decisions that were method relevant to the market conditions being traded at the given time.

Do you remember the 8/28/2006 training session on emini russell day trading setup selectivity, and a discussion about right side-left side trading, where I said that I knew a trader was a right side only trader IF?  When chart studying and/or evaluating for method trading setups, you don't start with the time period that you can see and 'pick out' trades 'oblivious' to the left side AND the relevant market condition and price information that you already know.  I know that you are a right side only trader IF this is what you are doing - I also know that you aren't using some of the 'best' information available for evaluating and basing your trading decisions.

Look at the left side chart below AND rank it in terms of how problematic this is for your trading – with 10 being the most problematic AND 1 being the least problematic.  Below the charts are some of the replies that I received to the left side chart and question, telling me why this chart was so problematic to trade.  The lines-dots on the right side chart are some of the setups-trades that I was shown that they would have done.

  • No trade from the focus line can partial. Even the pmd swing reverse does not partial. 

  • I can see scenarios that would allow two pivot trades. 

  • This is worse for me than consolidation.

  • After losing on 3 pivot trades I wouldn't know what to do.

  • Can't make heads or tails whether it's going to break long or short. In one area I think "definitely it will go short" then get my butt kicked, then I think "no, it's going long" then get my butt kicked. I can't recognize a valid setup...very confusing.

  • I wouldn't have any partials - here would be my trades:  trade1 short 1.2815 @ 10:07 (crown top, lower high, pmd, mex starting to flow down) - trade2: reverse Long 1.2818 @ 10:19 (support reject, pmd, mex flowing up).

  • If I was just trading off the 45 tick, I believe I'd have had at least 1 losing trade, and it's likely I'd have missed the first base entry that broke out of the range.

  • See the dark blue dot - that's the only possible trade I see and it would be dependant on the size and strength of the overall market and the previous long swing.

Let's consider some of these replies and marked trades.  To begin with, where is the left side evaluation saying what the right side market condition is, and what are any key price specifics from the left that must be focused on now - I know that you are a right side only trader IF this is your approach to this chart-question.  What is the market condition now - are there any key price specifics that should be focused upon AND IF yes where did they come from - what are the setups that are now right side base relevant to those considerations

How can you evaluate a chart for method and how you 'should' trade it real time, if your answers are completely hindsight?  For instance, the evaluation that no trade from the focus line, or even the pmd swing reverse does not partial is completely irrelevant - right?  Why do I answer this yes, because you had no idea what the outcome of these trades would have been when done.  Either they are base setups or they aren't, and that is the only relevant evaluation that can be made.  Consider the reply that after losing on 3 pivot trades I wouldn't know what to do - is this reply based upon 3 consecutive losses or chart confusion?  I would suggest that a trading decision isn't base on the results of prior trades, you take your next base setup.  The real issue that I see here is that none of these pivot trades are base, they shouldn't have been done.  So in light of this, I sense a chart confusion issue coming from the situation that a trader is trading non-base setups.

What about a reply like I can't recognize a valid setup, and the related comments about getting their butt kicked if various trades were taken?  Interesting dichotomy, on the one hand the trader is saying they have no setups, but on the other hand the traders talks about what would have happened if they traded.  For this trader there is one answer only - this was a very easy chart for me because I stayed flat because I didn't have any base setups to try.  Again, the additional comments are hindsight rhetoric, this was not known at the time a trade would have been done.

My comments aren't intended to be criticisms of the various replies, they are intended to point out what I think are two very important trading issues and problems:  (1) HOW are you going to make real time trading decisions IF your study-evaluation is in hindsight after the outcome is known (2) HOW are you going to make real time trading decisions IF your study-evaluation isn't method relevant, and based on the trade setups for a given market condition.  I often get the sense that these kinds of questions, or questions asked in a training session, are answered in an attempt to get the 'right' answer.  It is as if this is a test, where you read the book and then answer the questions based on the information you read - in this specific case you answer the question after you know the outcome because you see the rest of the chart.  This may have let you get an A in your college history classes, but this approach is of no use to you in being a profitable real money trader. 

I want to study-evaluate from known information, that means starting from the left side and what I can see AND then trade the right side in the context of that information, and the method setups relevant to that context.  This is an approach intended to give additional real time preparation time, along with a basis to make trading decisions based on the repetition-study on what typically happens when given left side market conditions are trade with right side setups.

 

These 2 charts show information from the left side brought to the chart at question - WHAT information did we have? 

We knew that the news reaction was down AND that there was a retrace that rejected and resumed that direction at the blue line 12816 - this is relevant resistance IF we trade back to that area.  As well, the last left side swing was a buy AND IF you looked left on your trading charts, or remember the price action in that location, you knew that there had been a swing reverse that 'stalled' around a 12793 center line.  This swing resumed with a green dot buy AFTER the center line/yellow dot initial indicator reverse area break and hold - the yellow dot was a pivot trade if done and it ended up working BUT it was not a base setup.

Price did continue back to the left side reject area/blue line, along with picking up another price in the area at the dark blue line, which I regard as being the first test of the blue line which after the retrace to the yellow line, resumed the swing with a momentum reverse back AND a break of both of these lines to a higher swing high - NOTE that there is nothing to do with the buy on a fast chart ttm flip - with the dc still 'in buy'.  At the swing high we currently regard the yellow line as support AND the blue-dark blue line as a key higher low, we also know that they will be the center line of the current range between the yellow line AND the swing high.

purple dot sell:  this was one of the trades that was shown on the chart-question reply - this is in no way a setup or method trade.  This is only an indicator reverse, which would be done at the first hit of left side price - no sell AND no exit of the trailing contract at this time.

 

A couple more of the comments above:  this is worse to me than consolidation - if I was just trading from the 45 tick chart.  This is consolidation AND why would we just trade only from a fast chart, which is something that never has to be done in general AND especially not in, consolidation which would be the worst time to do so - made even worse by fast chart pivot trading in consolidation.  Again, study-evaluate NOT in hindsight trying to get the right answers BUT as if you were making real time trading decisions, using all the method concepts you have available to make these decisions.

Price is consolidating after a directional swing - support holds BUT the preceding direction won't break and continue the move up.  This very often occurs when the swing 'ends' with a price momentum divergence, which we can see on the 120t, where there is a pmd on the test of the left side 12816 resistance price AND their is a transition into consolidation, which first becomes evident when there was a fast chart reverse that held above support BUT cannot shift 12816 to higher low support.

What are the trading setups relevant to this market condition:  (1) pmd swing reverse (2) consolidation setup - which would be a pivot shift to support or resistance after there was a double hold of the range so if it broke there would be a triple break OR a pivot entry on the 2nd break of the line where there is a retrace to a lower high with mex flow down into the trade.  IF you consider these 2 setups, you realize I am showing what a reverse or sell would look like AND not what a buy would look like - that is because basis the 120t chart in consolidation above the yellow line support, and then what becomes the hold of the higher low range bottom - there was no exit to the left side trade which would entail a buy.  Regarding an addon setup - that would still be a consolidation base setup AND not a pmd failure continuation setup.  After this move transitions from the pmd into consolidation and extends to the right, the pmd failure loses its relevancy to the consolidation condition.

Now let's evaluate the marked charts above - NOT simply from the right side chart BUT in the method concept of left-right trading, and the related base setups.

  • purple dot sell:  as discussed above there is nothing to do here - no sell - no exit.

  • blue dot1 - blue dot2:  these were described both as pmd swing reverse setups - they aren't.  There was not indicator reverse following by a retrace to a lower high/higher low AND then a break with mex flow in the direction of the break - the sell being the relevant setup to consider as a reverse of the left side buy, which also can be held so there wouldn't be a buy.  These were also described as pivot trades, citing the pmd BUT also saying that the trades were with mex starting to flow OR with mex flow.  Again, we are in consolidation, and those are not base setups as described.  As well, this is not the method read of mex flow, we don't read simply for the direction mex is flowing - we read for the direction of the flow AFTER a ttm flip and a retrace - for instance ttm turning red with a retrace to a lower high AND with that retrace mex continues to flow down.

  • yellow dot:  described as one of the 3 pivot trade losers.  At the time, this is nothing more than a line line break and actually before the ttm flip.  There is nothing right side base to consider, regardless of the given market condition.

  • dark blue dot1:  of the trade setups described, this was the only one with any consolidation base setup relevance - as there was a pivot shift into the trade AND there had been a double range hold that was being traded into, however I didn't-wouldn't do this trade in this situation for a variety of reasons:  (1) the 120t dc remains 'in buy'  (2) this trade is a reverse counter to the left side swing, where this really isn't the range break - this is a higher low area which would immediately hit the yellow line support, which has not been tested or at all setup to break (3) the trade setup is already showing that it is into a pmd.

  • dark blue dot2:  IF this setup had occurred:  blue line lower high with mex continuing to flow down AND with the 120t ttm red - this yellow line break would be a right side triple break setup AND I envision that this would be synched with the 120t dc dot shift-reverse.  You would still have the issue of trading into the yellow support line BUT you would be doing so with right side failure, and slow chart reverse.

 

Were there any other setups that you could see on the chart above that weren't marked or discussed? 

There is one that triggered on the last bar of the chart - an addon buy, which is a left side directional resumption/consolidation break setup - right side base. 

  • 120t resumes momentum after the higher low range hold, and another higher low AND there is a ttmf hook.

  • 12816 has shifted to support.

  • the trade is a break into the triple break on the range high, again resuming the left side swing.

  • 45t shows a similar right side setup - including the yellow line shift which is above the 12816 WITH the momentum resumption before the retrace back to the shift-reject of the focus line.

 

This was the result of the trade, which of course is irrelevant as discussed above AND IF anyone had identified this addon setup as a function of the results of the trade, you understand why this misses the point - you had no idea that this would occur at the time the trade had to be taken.  All you knew was whether you had a trade setup that was left side method relevant to the related right side market condition, price specifics, and any left side directional information.

The market was actually down 3 ticks for the day, basis the day session net change at the time of the day, so there was no 'bigger' direction to consider.  What you did know related to direction was the left side swing, which had been up, and you knew that the market had been able to withstand a news reaction which had been down and reverse.

The addon setup described is left side-right side base, whether you wanted to do an addon is another issue - the biggest issue to me AND the point of the discussion is that you had real time information allowing you to hold your buy, while having no base setup that 'should' have been traded, after the transition from price momentum divergence into consolidation.

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