Day Trading Method - Realtime Day
Trading Decision
Making
realtime decision making audio:
audio1
audio2
'Missed trades', or what are really missed initial entries since
the outcome of the trade is unknown at the time, are at the root of what I
think is one of the predominant problems/issues with trading. HOW what
should be a basic method setup isn't seen and/or implemented real time when
necessary AND then method is allowed to become psychology to the extent that
method and plan are replaced by emotional directed trading -vs- looking for the
next setup - for instance a first continuation trade.
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AND this is all because the markets moved too fast? Is this
really the case, do the markets really move too
fast to execute OR does the trader decide too late - does the
trader try to evaluate and analyze and determine if they have
a trade setup to the extent that they effectively make the
markets move 'faster'?
Market speed is an issue for sure. My
objective in method and trading was to make it 'slower' AND do
so for instance with a concept of trade setup/trade trigger,
where I have the time between knowing that I have a setup
until it triggers to be ready to execute. If it triggers -
take the trade AND if it doesn't - 'look' for the next setup.
Additionally, having a sensitivity to market conditions and
price, 'slows' down the market by giving a 'broader' plan to trading - for
instance having a strong down market and 'knowing' where resistance is AND when
it hits with a ticki high and rejects, a resumption or addon sell setup will
likely occur. |
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Will this be the case - often
but not always BUT having this in mind gives preparation time, which leads to
better real time implementation. AND if it doesn't occur, so be it , this is
about preparation based on market conditions AND not an opinion about what is
going to happen, and then 'freeze' me if it doesn't OR 'force' me into a trade to be 'right'.
BESIDES trying to 'slow' the market down, I want to be sure that
I am able to miss an initial entry and still enter the trade through a
subsequent setup. Will this sometimes give a situation where the initial entry
gives a profit but the entry used doesn't continue far enough and turns into a
small loser - of course - just like the initial entry to base trades also
sometimes become
losers.
This is not the issue - which is the notion that a 3-4-5+ point russell swing
was missed, because the initial entry was missed - AND the traders who let
themselves 'believe' this, have left method for psychology and many related
problems.
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consider: defining -vs- understanding -
understanding -vs- implementing - defining -vs- implementing AND
WHAT is the only context that real time implementation can
'successfully' occur?
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consider: IF you were asked the following
question: do YOU think your losing trades are a result of
entering a trade too early or too late - HOW would you answer?
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consider: real time thinking -vs- real time
reacting - HOW much time do you really have to think - HOW much
time do you really have to react?
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consider: real time decision making - setup plan
AND 'memory' cards
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consider: time -vs- timing
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consider: WHY is a trade missed? speed -vs- plan
- method -vs- psych
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consider: execution AND time - market-limit-stop
limit
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consider: HOW can you 'slow' the market down?
Trades do break and move fast BUT actually isn't this also a good
thing - to take a trade that quickly goes in your direction?
Definitely there will be times where initial entries are missed
BUT this 'situation' as described above also brings up many questions
and considerations for discussion - for instance look at the
charts below:
(1) HOW are the 2 red dot sells
missed but the yellow dot buy isn't missed? (2) did these trades
REALLY break too fast - WHEN or HOW much time did the trader have
before the trades occurred? (3) IF the trade execution is missed -
WHY does that mean the trade is missed - WHAT other subsequent
setups occurred that could have then be traded?
 
chart1: setup-trigger and WHEN do you know you have a trade?
consider the red dot1 sell and the pair of blue dots - there is 9
minutes in between those dots - how can the trade trigger too fast
if this is a plan setup? you don't like this trade and want a
break and hold continuation - look at the 2nd pair of blue dots -
there is 6 minutes between them AND really since this is your plan
trade you know at the time of the red dot the circumstances that
need to occur for your specific setup to trigger - the amount of
time between the red dot and the 4th blue dot is 7 minutes. maybe
you have no setup plan and maybe you have no 2nd setup if you miss
the initial OR maybe you 'freeze' which is a tpsych and not
tmethod - BUT these two setups as a pair are not going to both be
missed because you do not have enough time.
red dot2 was done as an addon - how much time was
available to do that trade? the time between the light blue dot
and the red dot is 3 minutes BUT the time is 1:20ct AND the floor
number was know at the beginning of the day - you knew this price
was the low at 9:53/tested at 10:46 and at 11:13. HOW much time
was there to know this price - the number of times it has
'bounced' - the current situation of the market? AND oh yeah - the
blue dot synched with a ticki low and the red dot addon synched
with its breaking and do remember that the es was the 'lagging'
market to the downside but was trading in synch.
when i think of traderA going long at the yellow
dot i first wonder - did they ever do the sell OR is this their
catch up trade at the first reverse of a swing that had enough
directional strength to give 2 partials to an addon. i can reduce
size there and i can exit an addon there BUT i can't go long there
- both because of setup BUT mostly because of how it fits the open
trade. i could go long the purple dot and just didn't - choosing
to exit my addon there and hold the initial - a combination of
seeing a ticki high and a willingness of a 'worse' entry price if
s1 didn't reject.
BUT we are considering time to trade - AND we are
considering setup. IF i buy the purple dot - i feel i need to do
so with the willingness to reverse back with the bigger swing AND
i know that the setup involved will be a combination of a
resistance reject with a bear flag break and an indicator
resumption AND since i use ticki as part of my setups i will want
to see if that combines with the reject. HOW much time do i have
to think about this? to begin with - should i be thinking about
this OR should i know it AND be reacting/trading the setup i know?
regardless - there is 6 minutes of time available.
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